Understanding The El Niño Phenomenon and Its Impact on Seasonal Changes

UNGKIT.COM – El Niño is a phenomenon characterized by sea surface temperatures (SST) rising above normal levels in the central to eastern Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon occurs episodically, typically at intervals ranging from 2 to 7 years.

Under normal conditions, trade winds blow from east to west across the Pacific Ocean, pushing warm seawater toward Asia and Indonesia. During an El Niño event, these trade winds weaken or reverse direction, causing warm seawater to be held back and accumulate in the central and eastern Pacific.

According to a report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a very strong El Niño event is currently underway and is expected to persist until early 2027, with temperature anomalies projected to peak at approximately +3.8°C in December 2026.

El Niño leads to longer-than-usual dry seasons, higher air temperatures, and a depletion of clean water reserves. Reduced rainfall can disrupt planting schedules, lower agricultural productivity, and even result in crop failure. These hot, dry conditions increase the risk of land drought as well as forest and land fires.

Based on the latest data as of the end of October 2026, the most critical areas—and the primary focus for forest and land fire management in Indonesia—are concentrated in several provinces, including Central Kalimantan, West Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, South Sumatra, and South Papua.

Other provinces experiencing the phenomenon, albeit on a smaller scale, include Southeast Sulawesi, Lampung, the Bangka Belitung Islands, East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), and North Maluku. 

The simultaneous occurrence of the El Niño and IOD phenomena exacerbates and prolongs the drought period across most parts of Indonesia, causing the rainy season to arrive late and last for a shorter duration.

The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that the onset of the 2026–2027 rainy season in 529 Seasonal Zones (ZOM)—covering 61.08 percent of Indonesia’s territory—will be delayed relative to its climatological average.

Regions where the rainy season is expected to begin in November include parts of Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), a small portion of East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), Sulawesi, North Maluku, Maluku, the northern part of West Papua, and parts of South Papua.

In December, the rainy season is expected to arrive in parts of Lampung, most of Java, parts of South Kalimantan, most of Bali, most of NTB, most of NTT, most of Sulawesi, parts of North Maluku, parts of Maluku, and the southern part of South Papua.

Areas projected to reach the peak of the rainy season in December 2026 include most of Sumatra and Kalimantan, parts of North Sulawesi, the southern coast of Gorontalo, a small part of Central Sulawesi, most of West Sulawesi, a small part of Maluku, the western part of Southwest Papua, a small part of West Papua, the northern part of Papua, the eastern part of Central Papua, and the western part of South Papua.

Meanwhile, areas projected to reach the peak of the rainy season in January 2027 include the southern part of Riau, the central part of the Riau Islands, a small part of Jambi, the northern part of Bengkulu, the Bangka Belitung Islands, the western part of South Sumatra, and the northern part of Lampung.

Additionally, this includes parts of Java, the central part of Bali, the western part of NTB, parts of NTT, parts of West Kalimantan, most of Central Kalimantan, a small part of East Kalimantan, parts of South Kalimantan, parts of Sulawesi, a small part of North Maluku, the western part of Maluku, and parts of the island of Papua. 

Regions predicted to experience the peak of the rainy season in February 2027 include central Lampung, most of Java, most of Bali, parts of West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), most of East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), the southern part of West Sulawesi, parts of South Sulawesi, the southern part of Southeast Sulawesi, parts of Maluku, and most of the island of Papua. (*)

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